Match: Claire Liu [305] vs Anna Bondár [78]
Event: WTA Guangzhou 2025 (Outdoor Hard) – Round of 16
Date and Time: October 23, 2025 – 5:35 AM ET

Form Snapshot

Bondár enters the Guangzhou round of 16 coming off a consistent indoor hard season, showing solid rally tolerance and return depth. Liu, meanwhile, has worked through qualifying and battled into the draw, but her serve and error rate remain volatile under pressure.

Key Statistics

#1: Bondár win-loss on hard courts: 18-8 (2025)

Bondár's consistency and fact that she wins a high percentage of longer rallies make her a reliable performer on hard surfaces.

#2: Liu second-serve points won: 44% last 10 matches

Liu's serve remains a weakness, especially on paceier courts; the second serve offers opponents an opportunity.

#3: Bondár break-points converted: 32% away from home in 2025

She’s efficient at returning and turning chances into games, which may allow her to steal service games from Liu.

Match Edge

On outdoor hard in Guangzhou, conditions favour rhythm play and longer exchanges. Bondár’s steadiness, especially on return and in extended rallies, gives her the edge. Liu’s first-strike game could surprise early, but unless it clicks quickly, Bondár is likelier to exert control as the match progresses.

Betting Angle

Play: Bondár ML

The market favors Bondár slightly, and for good reason. Liu’s serve has been unstable all season, having under 55% first-serve percentage in most of her recent matches. On the other hand, Bondár wins over 40% of return games on hard courts. On slower outdoor conditions in Guangzhou, that return edge grows. Liu’s quick-strike game can steal momentum, but her high error rate under pressure has been costly, especially against counter-punchers.

Alt Lean: Over 20.5 Games

Even so, this matchup profiles for long games and possible deuce-heavy holds. Both players extend rallies, and neither has a dominant serve, so breaks alone may not shorten the match. Expect one tight set and several grinding games before Bondár’s consistency earns her the edge.