Match: Félix Auger-Aliassime [12] vs Marin Čilić [89]
Event: ATP Swiss Indoors Basel (Indoor Hard) – Round of 16
Date and Time: October 23, 2025 – 8:00 AM ET

Form Snapshot

Auger-Aliassime rolled through his opener 6-2, 7-5 over Diallo, extending his indoor winning streak to six. The Canadian has been a force on fast courts (11–2 indoors this year) and remains unbeaten in completed ATP indoor matches. A two-time Basel champion (2022, 2023), his rhythm and confidence are back after a midseason slump.

Čilić steadied through his own tight start, edging Goffin 7-6, 7-5 in round one. It was his first Basel main-draw win since 2018, a reminder that even at 36, his serve-first game still translates indoors.

Key Statistics

#1: Auger-Aliassime indoor record: 11–2 (2025)

Unbeaten in completed ATP indoor matches this year, powered by an 80% first-serve points rate and elite hold consistency across all surfaces.

#2: Čilić tiebreak record: 5–7 in 2025

Still dangerous under pressure, but has dropped six of his last eight breakers versus top-30 players, struggling to convert return chances late.

#3: First-serve points won: Auger-Aliassime 81%, Čilić 76%

Both thrive in short exchanges. With over 70% of rallies ending within four shots, baseline patience won’t decide this one: first strikes will.

Match Edge

Basel’s pace favors both, but Auger-Aliassime moves cleaner and defends better between first strikes. Čilić can hang early, yet fatigue and return inconsistency tip the balance toward the Canadian.

Betting Angle

Play: Auger-Aliassime ML

Auger-Aliassime’s rhythm indoors is peaking, with a 11–2 record on hard courts in 2025 and riding a six-match win streak. His first-serve percentage and quick first-strike patterns hold up perfectly in Basel’s slick conditions. Against Čilić, whose return depth has dipped post-injury, Auger-Aliassime’s serve-forehand combo gives him control from the first ball. This is a spot where form and surface clearly favor the Canadian.

Alt Lean: Tiebreak Played: Yes

Čilić’s serve is still world-class when on rhythm, and Basel’s low bounce makes breaks rare early on. Both players hold above 85% indoors this season, and neither looks eager to grind long rallies. Expect one tight set that spills into a tiebreak before Auger-Aliassime pulls away.